Tuesday, December 4, 2007

By Popular Demand: Mitt Romney

The last post generated some general interest and I got requests to post analysis for more presidential candidates. As one more data point, here is the market for Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008:

I checked again our sentiment indicator (in maroon), which seems to capture well the upward spikes. (If you see carefully, our indicator spikes upwards before the market.)

This market, similarly to the market of Hillary Clinton, seems to move in cycles. This cyclical behavior can be nicely visualized by plotting the 30-day moving average of our sentiment index (in black). It seems that a downward cycle has started for Romney and should should continue for the next couple of weeks, until the 30-day moving average gets close to 0.3 or so. Time will tell :-)