Are you a Bayesian or a Frequentist?

You have a coin that when flipped ends up head with probability p and ends up tail with probability 1-p. (The value of p is unknown.)

Trying to estimate p, you flip the coin 10 100 times. It ends up head 7 71 times. (Update: The correct numbers for the example to be instructional are 71 and 100, not 7 and 10 as I listed previously.)

Then you have to decide on the following event: "In the next two tosses we will get two heads in a row."

Would you bet that the event will happen or that it will not happen?

See the solution