| PREDICTIONS | CURRENT VALUE | TODAY |
| From 6.0 to 6.5 | $49.95 | (closed) |
| From 6.5 to 7.0 | $36.86 | (closed) |
| From 5.0 to 5.5 | $4.60 | (closed) |
| From 5.5 to 6.0 | $4.34 | (closed) |
| From 1.0 to 5.0 | $4.23 | (closed) |
Taking the weighted average of these predictions, the markets shows a predicted outcome of:
$\begin{align}49.95 \cdot 6.25 & + \\ 36.86 \cdot 6.75 & + \\ 4.60 \cdot 5.25 & + \\ 4.34 \cdot 5.75 & + \\ 4.23 \cdot 3.0 & = 6.227 \end{align}$
And what was the final course evaluation? Did the market work? Well, the final course evaluation was a 6.212 with 35 student ratings. A relative error of 0.002 or 0.2%. I cannot think that I could get a more accurate prediction!
Interestingly enough, by observing the market, I can see that very few people actually picked the 6.0-6.5 range. Most of the players bought contracts of the 6.5-7.0 range. These contracts played their role of counterbalancing the few players that bought contracts in the 1.0-5.0 and in the 5.0-6.0 ranges. Therefore, while most of the action was in contracts that did not predict the correct range, this activity was crucial for the market to balance and give the correct prediction.
Interestingly enough, by observing the market, I can see that very few people actually picked the 6.0-6.5 range. Most of the players bought contracts of the 6.5-7.0 range. These contracts played their role of counterbalancing the few players that bought contracts in the 1.0-5.0 and in the 5.0-6.0 ranges. Therefore, while most of the action was in contracts that did not predict the correct range, this activity was crucial for the market to balance and give the correct prediction.
